top of page

Hawalas Aren’t Disappearing. They’re Going Digital. And Now So Are Western Union’s Rails.

May 6
2 min read
Prediction Markets, Cash Risk, and the Transparency Question

Recent reporting that Western Union has launched a Solana-based stablecoin (USDPT) reflects a broader shift in how cross-border value is settled. The significance is not the introduction of a new product; it is the convergence of infrastructure.


For years, informal value transfer systems (IVTS), including hawalas and Chinese underground banking networks, have incorporated digital assets, particularly stablecoins, into their settlement processes. Cash is collected locally, and value is increasingly settled digitally across borders. This shift has been gradual, but meaningful, reducing reliance on physical cash movement, compressing settlement timelines, and expanding geographic reach.


Formal remittance systems, of which Western Union is a leading participant in the estimated $700 billion global remittance market, developed along a different path. They relied on agent networks, correspondent banking relationships, and delayed settlement across jurisdictions.


These models were structurally distinct, but functionally similar. Both were designed to move value across borders, particularly for populations underserved by traditional banking systems. That distinction is now narrowing.


Western Union’s adoption of a blockchain-based settlement layer mirrors practices that have already become common in parts of the informal financial ecosystem. USDPT is designed to support near-instant settlement across its global network, reducing dependence on traditional correspondent banking rails.


In this context, stablecoins are best understood as settlement infrastructure for cross-border payment providers. This is the point of convergence between the formal and informal sectors. Informal systems moved first, whether out of necessity or convenience. Formal systems are now following for reasons of efficiency and scale.


The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has long emphasized the risks associated with unlicensed money or value transfer services. That focus remains relevant, but the underlying environment is changing.


The challenge is no longer limited to identifying systems operating outside regulatory frameworks. It increasingly involves understanding how similar infrastructure is used across both regulated and unregulated networks.


Western Union’s move does not initiate this shift. It reflects what informal providers have been doing for years.


The question is whether regulatory and investigative frameworks are calibrated for a financial system in which both formal institutions and informal networks rely on increasingly similar rails.


Understanding this convergence, and where visibility is gained or lost across these shared rails, is becoming central to how cross-border financial risk is assessed in practice, an area we are closely focused on.

 
 
 

Comments


bottom of page